The Periodicity Analysis of the Great Earthquakes with MS≥8.5
XU Qinghua
YANG Lingen
Abstract：In this paper, variance analysis superimposed by periodic extrapolation method are used to predict the periodicity of the world great earthquakes with MS≥8.5 since 1897. And through theoretical calculation, the paper tries to put forward the time period that next MS≥8.5 great earthquake may occur.The article also analyzes the possible errors and their roots in the statistical analysis, but the significance of this method is to apply the statistical theory analysis to the quantification of time prediction, which has a positive significance to determine the key monitoring period in a certain sense. In addition, 8 quasi periodic values are put forward through the analysis, which provide the reference for the research of seismogenic mechanism, the external environment and evolvement rule of huge earthquakes occurrence.
Keywords：The great earthquakes with MS≥8.5Variance analysisExtrapolation methodEarthquake prediction.
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 26-31 )