Risk Factors of Organ Failure in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis and Prediction Model Construction

Feng Xiaoli; Tang Wei; Zhang Xiaoqiang

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-5775.2025.22.007

Abstract：Objective:To investigate the risk factors of organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis and construct predictive model to provide more guidance for early triage management and prognosis improvement of high-risk groups.Methods:From January 2020 to January 2024,359 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed and treated in Anyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine were retrospectively included and grouped according to whether organ failure occurred or not,they were divided into 299 cases in the non-functional failure group and 60 cases in the functional failure group.Using influencing factors of occurrence of organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis to analyze the predictive efficacy of organ failure risk in patients with acute pancreatitis.Results:There were statistically significant differences in lymphocyte count(LYC),red blood cell volume distribution width(RDW),C-reactive protein(CRP)levels,and the bedside index of severity of acute pancreatitis(BISAP)/serum calcium ion(Ca2+)ratio between the two groups of patients(P＜0.05).The levels of LYC,RDW,CRP and the BISAP/serum Ca2+ratio are independent risk factors affecting the occurrence of organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis,and the difference is statistically significant(P＜0.05).The areas under the curve(AUC)were 0.753,0.715,0.712,0.675 and 0.859 respectively.Conclusion:The occurrence of organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis is independently correlated with the levels of LYC,RDW,CRP and the BISAP/serum Ca2+ratio.The data model constructed using the above four factors has a good predictive effect on the risk of organ failure in patients.