Constructing Influencing Factors of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure Based on Column Charts

Yao Yi; Liu Lu; Wang Chao

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-5775.2025.19.001

Abstract：Objective:To explore the influencing factors of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)in patients with chronic heart failure(CHF),and to construct a column chart prediction model based on risk factors.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted to collect clinical data of 117 CHF patients admitted to the hospital from January 2021 to June 2023,all of whom received conventional drug treatment.One year after discharge was used as the follow-up observation time,the incidence of MACE in patients was counted and divided into an occurrence group(n=53)and a non occurrence group(n=64).To collect clinical data of patients,univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of MACE in CHF patients,and a column chart risk prediction model was constructed.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to verify its predictive efficacy.Results:The differences in age,smoking,interleukin-6(IL-6),white blood cell count,left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF),and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP)between the occurrence and non occurrence groups were statistically significant(P＜0.05).According to the logistic regression analysis,the result showed that age,smoking,high IL-6 levels,high white blood cell counts,low LVEF,and high BNP levels were risk factors for MACE in CHF patients(OR＞1,P＜0.05).Column chart risk prediction model was constructed and verified that the model showed a C-index value of 0.954,indicating good discrimination.A standard curve was drawn to show that the calibration curve was similar to the Y-X line,and the model accuracy was good.The ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of MACE in CHF patients evaluated by the column chart risk prediction model was 0.954,sensitivity of 0.849.Conclusion:Age,smoking,high IL-6 levels,high white blood cell count,low LVEF,and high BNP levels are all risk factors for MACE in CHF patients,and a column chart model constructed based on these risk factors can predict the risk of MACE in CHF patients.