Application of Grey Dynamic Model in the Prediction of Volunteer Blood Donation

Wang Ziqiang; Cai Zhicheng; Wang Kaimin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-5775.2025.10.023

Abstract：Objective:To conduct various forms of volunteer blood donation in Zhongshan Area from 2012 to 2022,and to establish a grey dynamic model of blood donation,so as to provide guidance for the recruitment and management of unpaid blood donors.Methods:The predictive indicators for constructing a grey dynamic GM(1,1)prediction model were selected from the data of unpaid blood donors'whole blood and platelet collection at Zhongshan Central Blood Station from January 2012 to December 2021.The model's predictive capability was assessed by comparing the projected number of blood donors in 2022 with the actual value.Results:The forecast model of whole blood donation in Zhongshan City was X(1)(k+1)=1 738 583.903e0.023k-1 695 352.903.The prediction model of platelet donation number was X(1)(k+1)=48 495.07e0.049k-46 103.070.The Y(i)posterior difference ratio(mean square error)C of the aforementioned models was below 0.35,and all small error probability P were equal to 1.The relative error of the prediction results of whole blood donation in 2022 was 0.66%,and the relative error of the prediction results of platelet donation was 20.50%.Conclusion:The accuracy of the prediction models of whole blood and mono transfusion platelet donation in Zhongshan Area is excellent,and the prediction accuracy is good for extrapolation.Blood collection and supply institutions can use this model to predict the changing trend of the number of unpaid blood donations.