Influencing Factors of Recurrence in Patients with Plasma Cell Mastitis and Construction of Nomogram Model

Xiao Xi; Hao Kaifeng; Zhong Guangsheng

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-5775.2025.10.010

Abstract：Objective:To explore the factors of postoperative recurrence in patients with plasma cell mastitis(PCM),and to construct a Nomogram prediction model.Methods:112 patients with PCM treated from January 2019 to October 2022 in the hospital were selected.The patients were divided into recurrence group(21 cases)and non-recurrence group(91 cases)according to whether recurrence occurred after 12 months of follow-up.The clinical data of the two groups were compared.Univariate and logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the factors of postoperative recurrence of PCM.According to the results of logistic regression,the R software(R4.1.0)was used to construct a Nomogram prediction model,and the predictive value of the ROC curve model was calculated.Results:The body mass index,estradiol and CRP levels of recurrent group were higher than those of non-recurrent group.The proportions of sinus phase,nipple depression and abnormal prolactin in recurrent group were higher than those in non-recurrent group(t=2.379,4.945,4.247;χ2=6.358,5.943,7.092;P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index,nipple depression,abnormal prolactin,sinus phase,estradiol and CRP were risk factors for postoperative recurrence in PCM patients(χ2=4.539,5.153,5.208,6.153,8.903,5.988;P＜0.05).ROC curve analysis showed that the Nomogram model based on body mass index,nipple depression,abnormal prolactin,sinus phase,estradiol and CRP had an AUC of 0.948,with a sensitivity of 95.2%,and a specificity of 78.0%.Conclusion:Body mass index,nipple depression,abnormal prolactin,sinus phase,estradiol and CRP are the risk factors of postoperative recurrence in PCM patients.The Nomogram model based on the 6 indicators has good predictive effect on postoperative recurrence.