Study on the risk prediction model of nursing dependence in elderly stroke patients
SUN Jiarong
YAN Jinxiu
DONG Youqing
WU Haibin
LIU Qi
Abstract：Objective To explore and compare the risk factors and prediction performance of nursing dependence in elderly stroke pa-tients based on Logistic regression model and XGBoost model.Methods A general information questionnaire,Care Dependence Scale(CDS),Visual Analogue Scale(VAS),Barthel Index(BI),Mini Nutritional Assessment(MNA),and General Self-Efficacy Scale(GSES)were used to investigate a total of 403 elderly stroke patients admitted to a hospital.According to the occurrence of nursing dependence,they were divided into an occurrence group(n=258)and a non-occurrence group(n=145).Logistic regression was used to analyze the influen-cing factors of nursing dependence in elderly stroke patients.Logistic regression model and XGBoost model were used to evaluate the discrimi-nation,calibration and clinical practicality of the model.Results The incidence of care dependence in elderly stroke patients was 64.02％.Multivariate analysis identified gender,education level,occupational status,living conditions,number of chronic diseases,recent hospitalization days,use of assistive devices,recent history of falls,pain level,limb function dependence,and self-efficacy as independent risk factors.The area under the curve,accuracy,precision,sensitivity,specificity and F1 value of the XGBoost model were better than those of the Logistic re-gression model,with good calibration(P=0.243),and it had clinical value within the risk threshold range of 0～0.4.Feature importance anal-ysis showed that the main factors affecting nursing dependence in elderly stroke patients were limb function dependence,self-efficacy,pain level,living conditions and number of chronic diseases.Conclusion The nursing dependence of elderly stroke patients needs to be improved.The XGBoost model can effectively predict the risk of care dependence in elderly stroke patients.Clinically,the focus should be on the rehabil-itation of limb function,psychological support,pain management,social support,and chronic disease management to reduce the risk of care de-pendence.
Keywords：elderly stroke patientsnursing dependenceLogistic regression modelXGBoost modelrisk predictionlnursing
Publication Date：2025-05-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 404-410 )