Analysis of the influencing factors of dysphagia in the elderly in nursing homes and construction of risk prediction model

CHEN Yao; GU Yifan; HU Huiju; TANG Qiqun; WANG Qian; YANG Jiao

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-315x.2024.10.013

Abstract：Objective To explore the influencing factors of dysphagia in the elderly in nursing homes,and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 558 elderly people in 11 nursing homes in Hebei Province were selected by the convenience sampling method,and were surveyed using the general information questionnaire,Water-Swallowing Test,Functional Oral Intake Scale,the Geriatric Self-Effi⁃cacy Scale for Oral Health,Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index and Mini-Mental State Examination.Results Among the 558 elderly peo⁃ple in nursing homes,182(32.62％)had dysphagia.Logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age,smoking history,and preference for hot food were risk factors for dysphagia in elderly people in nursing homes(P<0.05).Removable dentures,fixed dentures,good dining as⁃sistance in nursing homes,high functional oral intake scale,high oral health-related self-efficacy and high oral health evaluation index scores were protective factors for preventing dysphagia in elderly people in nursing homes(P<0.05).The area under the ROC curve was 0.912,the sensitivity was 0.830,the specificity was 0.851,and the Youden index was 0.681.Conclusion The incidence of dysphagia in the elderly in nursing homes is relatively high,and nursing staff should carry out screening and prevention work for key groups to reduce the occurrence of dysphagia,and improve the quality of life of the elderly.The constructed dysphagia risk prediction model has high predictive and judgment a⁃bility,and can be used as a risk screening tool for dysphagia in the elderly in nursing homes.