Risk factors analysis and risk prediction model construction of disabled elderly in community
ZHANG Nan
WANG Aiyuan
GAO Chunxia
WU Yixue
Abstract：Objective To investigate the status and risk factors of the disabled elderly in the community,and develop a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 580 community elderly people in Qingdao were investigated by general information questionnaire,Katz scale,Ger-iatric Depression Scale and Social Support Rating Scale.The Logistic regression was used to analyze risk factors,and the area under ROC curve was used to evaluated the constructed risk model.Results Among 580 elderly people in the community,67 were disabled,and the disa-bility rate was 11.55％.Multifactor analysis results showed that the risk factors of disabled elderly were old age,low income from the govern-ment,children's subsidies,lack of interests,lack of exercise,and depression(P＜0.01 or P＜0.05).Risk prediction model based on the above risk factors was 0.965,the sensitivity was 0.940,the specificity was 0.904,and the Youden index was 0.844.Conclusion The disabled elder-ly in community can not be ignored.We should strengthen the health management for elderly,pay attention to their financial difficulties,and encourage the elderly to take active exercise,and strengthen psychological nursing.The risk prediction model for disabled elderly has good clinic practice and is helpful to effectively distinguish groups at high risk of disabled elderly.
Keywords：disabilityelderlycommunityrisk factorsprediction model
Publication Date：2023-05-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 408-412 )