Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Mining and Metallurgy Basin

WU Xiangying; YOU Zhi; YANG Zenghuizi; WANG Dandan; DU Meijin; HU Heng; YANG Yuguang

doi:10.19672/j.cnki.1003-6504.1147.24.338

Abstract：Through quantitative research on the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of ecosystem service value in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under the background of land use change,the paper provides theoretical basis for rational land use and ecological governance in the basin,and helps implement the Yangtze River conservation strate-gy.Based on the land use data of Daye Lake Basin in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River obtained from six periods of remote sensing human-computer interactive interpretation from 1992 to 2021,combined with the revised equiva-lent factor table,land use dynamic attitude,sensitivity analysis,spatial autocorrelation and topographic analysis,the PLUS model was used to predict the land use situation in 2033 under multiple scenarios,so as to explore the spatio-temporal evolu-tion of ecosystem service value in Daye Lake Basin.The results showed that(1)The land use types in the Daye Lake Basin are dominated by forestland and cultivated land.The land use mainly undergoes transitions between cultivated land and con-struction land,and it is manifested by a substantial decrease in cultivated land and a rapid increase in construction land simulta-neously,which is influenced by human activities and the intensified process of urbanization.(2)In recent years,the land type changes frequently,the value of ecosystem services declines,and the ecological environment is destroyed.During the entire study period,forest land and water body were the main contributors of ecosystem service value.In the primary service type,the regulation service is the main contribution,and in the secondary services,the hydrological regulation is the main contri-bution.On the spatial scale,there are obvious differences in the ecosystem service value of Daye Lake Basin,and the hori-zontal spatial distribution of ecosystem service value has a certain aggregation degree.At the vertical spatial scale,the value of ecosystem services of each land use type initially increases and then decreases with the increase of the terrain gradi-ent.(3)In 2033,under the scenarios of natural development,cultivated land protection and ecological protection,the land use is mainly cultivated land and forest land,while the water area and construction land show an obvious expansion trend.Under the scenarios of cultivated land protection and ecological protection,the improvement of ecosystem service value in Daye Lake Basin is relatively significant.