Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Prediction of Emission Reduction Potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region's Transportation Sector
NING Chunxiao
GUO Xiurui
GONG Xiaoqian
CHEN Dongsheng
CHENG Shuiyuan
Abstract：The transportation sector is the third most important industry in terms of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions following the power and manufactuary sectors in China.In this article the LEAP model is used to build the energy and environmental emission model for the transportation sector(roadway,railway,aviation,and waterway)of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of above four types of transportation in varied scenarios for the period of 2019-2060 are predicted.In addition,the reduction potential of four transport sectors is compared and an-alyzed.Consequently,the results show that the CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region indicate a notable upward trend in the baseline scenario.It is predicted that in 2030 the emissions of Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei Provine will increase by 61.7％,79.9％and 56.8％,respectively,and in 2060 by 275.3％,229.7％and 256.9％,re-spectively.In the comprehensive scenario,compared with the baseline scenario,CO2 emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province will be reduced by 62.8％,44.0％and 65.8％,respectively.As a whole,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can hit the target of'peaking carbon dioxide emission'by the year 2030,and in the year 2060 CO2 emissions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province will be cut by 97.3％,83.9％and 94.6％,respectively.To conclude,optimizing energy structure is the most effective means of reducing carbon emissions,and it is estimated that CO2 emissions could be reduced by 80％or so by the year 2060.
Keywords：transportation sectorLEAP modelcarbon dioxide emissionsscenario analysisBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
Publication Date：2023-09-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 138-147 )