Probability Prediction of Sudden Water Quality Safety Risk Events in Large-Scale Water Diversion Projects
HE Zhengbang
QIU Chunxia
Abstract：Aiming at large-scale water diversion projects with shipping functions,this paper conducted research on probability prediction of sudden water quality safety risk events.Such projects serve as core facilities for inter-basin water resources allocation,and water quality safety concerns drinking water safety in water-receiving areas,social stability,and ecological environment along the route.Sudden water quality events,characterized by sudden occurrence,rapid diffusion,and wide harm scope,pose severe challenges to project operation and management,aiming to provide quantitative basis for precise risk prevention and control and emergency decision-making.This paper systematically identified four main risk sources including shipping vessels,port terminals,dangerous goods transport vehicles,and cross-river pipelines,constructed a comprehensive prediction analysis based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA),integrated historical statistical data with expert judgment,identified key causal factors,and quantified the occurrence probability of various events.This method can effectively overcome difficulties arising from insufficient data and system complexity,provide quantitative basis for precise prevention and control of sudden risks and emergency decision-making,and possesses important theoretical and practical value for ensuring water conveyance quality safety of the project.
Keywords：water diversion projectwater quality safety riskprobability prediction
Publication Date：2026-06-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-16(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 33-39 )