Forecast and Early Warning of Small and Medium Rivers Based on Empirical Analysis Method
YU Weiwei
NIU Sixiang
WANG Yuehua
LI Xiaolong
Abstract：Aiming at the characteristics of small and medium rivers,including strong flood suddenness,short confluence time,and great difficulty in forecast and early warning,this paper explores rapid forecast and early warning methods for small and medium river floods.Taking a hydrological station in Zhejiang Province as an example,historical flood process data of the basin are collected,and regression analysis is used to analyze the correlation between peak-generating rainfall,rainfall duration,and water level rise,constructing a forecast water level quick-reference table based on a linear regression model.Meanwhile,the upstream-downstream water level correlation method is used,combined with mathematical function relationships,to rapidly derive the peak water level at downstream hydrological stations.The research results can provide reference for defense dispatch of small and medium river floods.
Keywords：small and medium riversforecast and early warningregression analysiscorrelation analysis
Publication Date：2026-07-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-16(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 58-63 )