Non-Stationary Flood Return Period Analysis Based on Time-Varying Moment Model
SUN Huafeng
Abstract：This paper conducts a non-stationary analysis of the maximum flood peak discharge of Wangkuai Reservoir in the Daqing River Basin,and calculates the reservoir flood return period under non-stationary conditions.It describes the influence of environmental changes and underlying surface conditions of the reservoir on the flood return period.The research method employed is the Generalized Additive Model for Location,Scale,and Shape(GAMLSS)based on the time-varying moment model.A non-stationary flood frequency analysis was performed on the maximum flood peak discharge of Wangkuai Reservoir.Model parameters were evaluated using the AIC criterion,and the optimal parameter model was selected to calculate the flood return period under non-stationary conditions.The results indicate that the maximum flood peak discharge of Wangkuai Reservoir shows a significant declining trend and change points,effectively reflecting the impact of continuously changing environmental and hydrological factors on flood risk assessment.
Keywords：non-stationaritytime-varying moment modelflood return period
Publication Date：2026-06-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-16(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 82-88 )