Impact of Runoff in Shahe River Basin under Climate and Land Use Change
LI Yafeng
ZHAO Benlong
GUO Wangxin
LIU Bin
Abstract：To investigate the response of surface runoff in the Shahe River Basin to changes in climate and land use,based on the daily meteorological and hydrological data of the Shahe River Basin from 1960 to 2020,the trend of precipitation,temperature and runoff in the basin was analyzed by using moving average method,linear regression test method and m-k nonparametric test method.Combined with the land use data of Shahe River Basin,SWAT model of Shahe River Basin is established.Through calibration and verification,SWAT model has good applicability in runoff simulation of Shahe River Basin.On this basis,the impact of climate and land use change on runoff is quantitatively analyzed through scenario simulation.The results indicate:Over the past 61 years,the temperature of Shahe River Basin has a significant upward trend,the precipitation has not decreased significantly,but the measured runoff has a significant downward trend;Cultivated land,forest land and grassland are the main land use types in the basin,accounting for more than 90%of the area,and the area change range is small from 1980 to 2020;Climate and land use change will lead to runoff reduction in the study area.By comparing the contribution rate,the main factor leading to runoff reduction is climate change.
Keywords：climate changeland use changerunoff changeSWAT modelShahe River Basin
Publication Date：2026-05-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-16(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 1-8 )