Trends and Abrupt Changes in Inflow Runoff of the Miyun Reservoir
YANG Wenjiao
ZHANG Cen
LIU Tengfei
ZHANG Guanyu
Abstract：Since the commencement of water transfer to Beijing via the South-to-North Water Diversion Project's central route in 2014,the Miyun Reservoir has assumed the critical role of a strategic reserve reservoir.After 2021,the reservoir is required to operate at high water levels,making its role in water resource allocation increasingly vital.In this study,a detailed analysis was conducted on the inflow runoff of Miyun Reservoir from 1960 to 2022 using linear regression,Mann-Kendall trend tests,and characteristic analysis methods.The Mann-Kendall mutation test and ordered clustering method were employed to preliminarily identify hydrological change points in the inflow runoff series,and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to further verify the significance of these change points.The results indicated that the inflow runoff to the Miyun Reservoir has generally shown a decreasing trend,which had become more pronounced since the early 2000s.The years 1979 and 1998 were identified as significant hydrological mutation points.
Keywords：Miyun Reservoirrunoff volumetrend analysisabrupt change analysis
Publication Date：2025-09-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-10-10(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 48-51 )