Joint Forecasting and Dispatching of Reservoirs in Fenshuijiang River Basin

ZHANG Yulun; CHEN Zhou; DENG Xiang; YANG Lili

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2025.04.014

Abstract：To address the lack of coordination in joint operation among reservoirs in the Fen River Basin and the peak-shifting scheduling issues with the downstream Fuchunjiang Reservoir,a flood forecasting model and multi-objective optimization scheduling model based on a group of four medium-and large-sized reservoirs—Yinggong Reservoir,Huaguangtan Reservoir,Qingshandian Reservoir,and Fen River Reservoir—were established.Simulation scenarios for flood control scheduling,benefit-oriented scheduling,and rule-based scheduling were conducted to provide theoretical support for basin flood control operations.A historical review of the"20190713"heavy rainstorm event showed that the forecasted peak flow and flood volume errors for each reservoir were reasonable,with an average deterministic coefficient of 0.93,indicating good fitting performance.By incorporating downstream Fuchunjiang Reservoir's peak-shifting scheduling into the objective function and solving the multi-objective optimization model using the NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm,results demonstrated that,compared with historical operations,the global optimization scheduling increased the average peak reduction rate of the reservoir group from 58.91％to 61.08％,and advanced the peak occurrence time at the downstream Fen River station by 4 hours.This effectively achieved peak-shifting scheduling.Joint forecasting and scheduling of the reservoir group can provide scientific contingency plans for future basin flood control.