Analysis and Prediction of Precipitation Variation Trend in the Kuaize River Basin from 1959 to 2020

HU Xin; WU Jie; WANG Dongsheng; QI Peiheng

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2025.02.014

Abstract：The analysis and prediction of precipitation variation trend in the basin is of great significance to the rational distribution and management of water resources.Taking the measured precipitation data of the Kuaize River Basin from 1959 to 2020 as the research object,the linear fitting method and 5-year sliding average method are employed to analyze the precipitation variation trend and the precipitation days in different periods throughout the years.In addition,the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method is used to investigate the significance of the trend change,Morlet wavelet analysis is conducted to investigate multi-scale periodic changes.In the light of the weighted Markov chain model and fuzzy set theory,the precipitation in the next 10 years is predicted.It can be found that:①The precipitation of the Kuaize River Basin in different periods shows a decreasing trend during 1959-2020,and the change trend is not significant.②The number of precipitation days over the past years has been decreasing,and the changing trend is extremely significant.③Wavelet analysis shows that the annual precipitation is mainly influenced by the scale periodic fluctuations of 5,12,and 20 years.From 2016 to 2020,the basin was at the end of the period of low precipitation,and the final oscillation center curve was not closed.It is speculated that precipitation will be in a fluctuating upward trend in the coming years.④As the weighted Markov chain model and fuzzy set theory predict,the precipitation in the next 10 years will increase,the predicted average precipitation is 1 198.3 mm,the maximum predicted value of 1 260.0 mm will occur in 2030,and the minimum predicted value will occur in 2024.The research results can provide reference for regional water resources management,water ecological dispatching,as well as flood control and drought relief.