Risk prediction model establishment of adverse prognosis in acute epiglottitis and clinical value analysis
LI Jing
ZHAO Xiaojuan
LI Yuehua
Abstract：Objective To build a risk prediction model of adverse prognosis in patients with acute epiglottitis and to formulate targeted intervention strategies.Methods From August 2021 to January 2023,188 patients with acute epiglottitis treated were selected.According to the prognosis,they were divided into the mild disease group(n=128)and severe disease group(n=60).Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were performed to construct the early risk warning model,and Hosmer-lemeshow test was used to test the goodness of fit of the model.Results Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed significant differences in gender,onset time,smoking,partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood(PaO2)between groups(P<0.05),and the odds ratio(OR)was greater than 1.The probability model of adverse prognosis in patients with acute epiglottitis was as follows:P=1/[1+exp(59.311-1.337X1-0.242 X2-0.762X3-0.795X4)].The goodness of fit test results showed χ2=4.174,and P=0.841.Conclusion Male gender,nocturnal onset,smoking,and PaO2 reduction are the risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with acute epiglottitis.The risk prediction model of poor prognosis in patients with acute epiglottitis constructed based on this has high clinical predictive value,which can guide clinical practice to carry out early intervention and prevention to improve the prognosis.
Keywords：logistic regression analysisacute epiglottitispoor prognosisprediction model
Publication Date：2026-01-26
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-17(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 153-156 )