Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Carbon Stocks and Scenario Modeling in Qingjiang River Basin in Southwestern Hubei Province
CHEN Hu
SUN Yi
YUAN Hao
TU Yi
ZHANG Qi
FANG Xuxi
Abstract：The purpose of this paper was to investigate the response of land use change to carbon stock in Qingjiang river basin,to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon stock,and to explore the sustainable development path of the basin.Using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model and the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,the carbon stocks in the Qingjiang river basin under two scenarios in 2000,2010,2020 and 2030 were evaluated,and the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon stocks in the basin from both temporal and spatial perspectives were analyzed.The results showed that the main land types in the Qingjiang river basin were forest land and cropland,which were also the main carbon sequestering land types in the basin,and the average carbon stock value of each land type under the natural development scenario from 2000 to 2030 showed the characteristics of″two increases,two decreases,and two stabilizations″.The carbon stock level in Qingjiang river basin was relatively high and stable,and the spatial distribution of carbon stock eigenvalues showed a positive spatial correlation with gradually decreasing agglomeration,and the high value areas were concentrated in the southeastern part of the basin,while the low value areas were dispersed in the central and northern parts of the basin.The ecological protection scenario was more favorable to carbon accumulation than the natural development scenario,and the adoption of ecological protection measures in future land use planning could help to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of the watershed and ensure the carbon balance of the ecosystems in the watershed.The results of the study can provide theoretical guidance for the sustainable development of the watershed.
Keywords：land use changePLUS modelInVEST modelcarbon stocksscenario simulationspatial autocorrelation
Publication Date：2024-09-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 426-434 )