Research on decision criteria for evaluation of emergency safety investment projects
LIU Wei
LI Ruijing
ZHANG Lili
LI Bohan
Abstract：In order to improve the scientificity of investment project decision-making and promote the develop-ment of emergency cause in large countries,the evaluation and decision-making criteria of emergency safety investment project are put forward.This paper analyzes the behavior characteristics of decision makers in the use of three investment project decision criteria,such as expected profit and loss value method,utility expec-ted value theory and expectation theory.This paper puts forward the theory of risk decision making based on the risk types of risk decision makers,and uses the concept of risk preference to avoid mixed decision makers to explain the idea that the Allais paradox is caused by the decision behaviors of risk avoiders,and demon-strates the characteristics of reversal or sudden change of investment risk attitude of risk avoiders at the inflec-tion point near the expected value.The results show that the applicable object of the expectation theory is the risk-averse hybrid,and the expected value theory and expected utility theory are ineffective in the combination decision-making of emergency plans,mainly because the decision makers of emergency investment alternative plans belong to the risk-averse hybrid decision makers,and they usually choose to bear the accident loss plan with randomness.Nor do they choose to bear the costs of a certain accident.Therefore,in the decision-mak-ing process of emergency portfolio scheme,it is of practical significance to consider the attributes of risk pref-erence avoiders and take the anticipation theory as the decision-making criterion.
Keywords：emergency investment projectsrisk based decision-makingexpectancy theoryexpected utilitypreference variation
Publication Date：2024-10-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 111-116 )