Research on seasonal changes,cycles and irregular fluctuation patterns of safety production accidents in China

LIU Chenjun; LI Ruijing; LI Bohan

doi:10.19956/j.cnki.ncist.2024.03.017

Abstract：In order to effectively reduce production safety accidents and better guide the formulation and implementation of accident prevention and control policies.Using the statistical long-term trend exclusion method and the residual method based on the yearly data of the non-new crown epidemic,the article analyzes the seasonal changes,cyclical fluctuation and irregular fluctuation of the number of 3,739 work safety acci-dents in various provinces,cities and industries from 2015 to 2019.The results of the seasonal variation of ac-cidents show that the seasonal variation of safety accidents in China shows the seasonal variation pattern of"one low,two high and one flat",and the seasonal indices are 89.67%,106.98%,102.67%and 100.69%re-spectively.Accident cycle fluctuation research results show that:China's safety production accidents do not have a fixed cycle,but always in the accident expansion period and accident contraction period of two unstable state,the peak and trough time accounted for 33.3%and 66.7%;accident irregular fluctuation research results show that:China's safety production accidents are affected by the"irregular change"of 72.22%of the time,the accident is affected by the"irregular change"of the seasonal variation pattern.The results of the study ir-regular fluctuation of accidents show that about 72.22%of the time of safety production accidents in China are affected by"irregular changes",accidents are positively affected by irregular positive impact of about 1.11 seasons per year,the negative impact of 1.78 seasons and no impact of 1.11 seasons.Finally,based on the changing law of safety accidents in China,some targeted accident prevention measures are proposed to provide reference for China's safety production management in the post epidemic era.