The Forecast of the Total Number of Coal Mine Accidents Based on ARIMA Multiplicative Seasonal Model
TAN Liyun
Abstract：This paper is to research an application of the multiplicative seasonal model to forecast the total number of China ’ s coal mine accidents.By the empirical analysis on the data of coal mine accidents from January 2006 to December 2010 , an accepted multiplicative seasonal forecasting model ARIMA (41, ,1)(1,1,1)12 is built up after differing the series to be stationary and esti-mating the order and parameters of the model.Furthermore, the test of this multiplicative seasonal model shows that it has a de-sirable fitting effect on the data of coal mine accidents.At last, this model is applied to forecast the number of national coal mine accidents from January 2010 to December 2010, and the forecasted values have a high accuracy when compared to the actual data.
Keywords：Multiplicative Seasonal ModelTime Series AnalysisForecast
Publication Date：2013-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 25-28 )