Study on the Characteristics of Small Earthquake Activity in the Border Region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
YUE Xiaoyuan
CUI Bowen
WANG Lihong
MA Liang
WANG Yan
Abstract：Combined with the moderate seismic activity(ML≥4.0)in the border region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei since 1992,the fluctuation characteristics of small earthquake activity in this area were analyzed and the anomaly index was extracted.It is found that after the continuous enhancement of ML2.0～2.9 seismicity for four months with a frequency of≥10 in the border region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,earthquakes above ML4.0 are more likely to occur within 8 months.The prediction efficiency of this prediction index is analyzed.The earthquake corresponding ratio is 80%,the false ratio is 20%,the omission rate is 33%,R=0.57,R0=0.44,indicating a good prediction efficiency.It can be used as a short-term prediction index to provide prediction basis for the analysis of significant earthquakes in the border region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.This paper also discussed the causes and reliability of high-frequency anomalies in small earthquake activities.
Keywords：Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei border regionsmall earthquake activityhigh-frequency anomalyprediction efficiency
Publication Date：2023-03-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 12-19 )