Prediction on 2016-2017 La Ni(n)a Event and Its Influence on Coastal Region of China by Using the Earth System Model FIO-ESM

LIAO Hua-xia; BAO Ying; SONG Zhen-ya; SHU Qi; YIN Xun-qiang

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3682.2017.01.002

Abstract：Recent observations have shown that the SST anomalies in the central and the eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean are slightly lower than the La Ni(n)a threshold (-0.5℃),but both the atmospheric and oceanic states cannot fully support the turning to weak La Ni(n)a.In the present paper,assimilation of the climate models from 1 January 1992 to 31 October 2016 is carried out by using the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIO-ESM) and the short-term climate assimilation and forecasting system established based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter (EAKF) assimilation scheme,showing that the assimilation system can provide a good initial field for prediction.Afterwards,the states of the 2016-2017 La Ni(n)a event and the anomalies of the air temperature and the precipitation in the coastal regions of China are predicted for the future 6 months.The predicted results indicate that the surface water of the Tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool down by the end of 2016,and the SST anomaly in the Ni(n)o3.4 area will still be slightly lower than -0.5 ℃,indicating that there will be a weak La Ni(n)a in 2016-2017.It is also shown that the SST in the eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean will continuously drop down in spring of 2017,suggesting that the 2016-2017 La Ni(n)a be lasted longer.The predicted results also show that air temperature anomaly which shows higher in the north and lower in the south occurs in the coastal regions of China from winter of 2016 to spring of 2017.In the southern region of China a negative anomaly of precipitation is present.The Extreme weather and climate anomalies associated with La Ni(n)a can cause a great influence on the coastal regions of China,but the influence caused by the 2016-2017 La Ni(n)a would be relatively weak in general.