Reliability Assessment of Reusable Rocket Engines Based on the GO-FLOW Method
REN Jiaji
TAO Liangyan
Abstract：To enhance mission safety and cost-effectiveness,this study aims to address the challenge of reliability assessment for reusable rocket engines across multiple mission phases.Key operational phases,such as ignition and launch,maximum dynamic pressure,stage separation,secondary orbit insertion,and landing capture,are analyzed using the goal-oriented flow(GO-FLOW)method to construct a comprehensive system reliability model.Physical components are abstracted into operators,with signal propagation mechanisms employed to evaluate the dynamic evolution of propellant supply,combustion,and control subsystems across these phases.A performance consistency metric is proposed,with calculation results demonstrating a system-wide performance consistency of 80.6%,indicating high reliability.Sensitivity analysis conducted using MATLAB involves adjusting the key operator parameters from 0.95 to 1.00.Results identify the nozzle as the most influential component,contributing up to 14.9%to system performance consistency,followed by the propellant tank(11.7%),fuel pipeline(8.1%),control valve(7.1%),and combustion chamber(14.6%).These findings provide a quantitative insight for pinpointing critical vulnerabilities in the system.The key components impacting reliability at the five mission phases are identified as igniters,control valves,combustion chambers,gimbal mechanisms,and turbopumps.Compared to conventional reliability analysis methods,the GO-FLOW approach demonstrates superior dynamic modeling capabilities and computational efficiency.This study offers novel insights for the design and operational planning of reusable rocket engines.
Keywords：GO-FLOW(goal-oriented flow)methodreusable rocket enginereliability modelingsystem simulationmission evaluation
Publication Date：2025-12-31
Online Publishing Date：2026-01-16(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：17( 30-46 )