Risk Modeling and Analysis Based on Causal Bayesian Network:A Case Study
YANG Min
WANG Zhuwei
WANG Yanmei
CHEN Xu
Abstract：In order to validate the CBN-based RMA method proposed in article[1],four common patterns are first introduced to simplify the structure modeling of the method,which will reduce the effort of experts'judgement in subsequent parameter modeling,and then the improved method is applied in risk analysis of Neelum-Jhelum hydropower station tunneling project in Pakistan. As a result,the contractors control effec-tively the project risks and obtain much more revenue than expected. This case shows that improved CBN-based RMA method has easy operability and will significantly enhance the efficiency of engineering risk management.
Keywords：engineering risk managementcausal Bayesian networktunneling project
Publication Date：2016-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 121-127 )