Assessment of Project Portfolio Risk Based on Bayesian Network
Guan Du-juan
Guo Peng
Abstract：The project portfolio risk cannot be assessed by the linear addition of single project risks be-cause of the interaction effects.This method combines expert knowledge and K2 algorithm to obtain the Bayesian network of project portfolio risk, and calculates the conditional probability table of nodes in the network by measuring the impact of interaction effects on project risks,so as to realize the Bayesian network inference of project portfolio.To generate an ordered variable input required by K2 algorithm, the mutual information between project risks is calculated, which is combined with conditional independent test to ob-tain the ordered project nodes.Finally, the practicability and effectiveness are proved through applying this method to a new high-tech enterprise.
Keywords：project portfolioproject portfolio risksBayesian networkmutual informationconditional independence test
Publication Date：2015-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 31-35 )