Modeling and Analysis of Risk of Flight Crew Error

Gao Yang; Gong Yi-min

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2014.01.001

Abstract：Flight crew human error significantly affects the reliability and safety , and is the primary factor that results in accidents/events in aviation industry .A new method of flight crew error analysis ( Flight Crew-Human Error Criticality Analysis , F-HECA) is developed .It can be used to estimate the human er-ror occurring in cockpit , decrease the error effects of these unexpected behaviors during the flight opera-tional process , and provide valuable means to enhance human reliability and system safety for flight task . Although the existing HRA ( Human Reliability Analysis ) is able to calculate the probable occurrence of human errors , it fails to identify the potentially critical problems caused by human errors in cockpit .Hu-man error criticality is constructed as the principle for assessment in the proposed method .In evaluating the flight crew error criticality , three independent variables are used .They are the probability of human er-ror, the severity of human error consequence , and the probability of human error effect .The F-HECA is integrated with grey synthetic evaluation to solve the problem of nonlinear factor that makes practical appli-cation difficult.Then, the classification and framework of flight crew error are technically established for assessing the criticality of error in accident case , which can be used as a prototype to support our ap-proach .The method can be used to analyze the error of flight crew and assess the criticality of error .It also can be used to predict and prevent the flight crew error .Besides, it is beneficial for identifying the impor-tant and latent reason in designing standard operation procedure ( SOP) when sufficient accidents/events are provided and for flight training and flight operation manual .