Predictive value analysis of ABC score,GBS score,and prostaglandin E2 for short-term prognosis in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding
Dong Weiwei
Zhou Yang
Jia Dan
Sun Yanhua
Zhang Huiping
Zhou Chenguang
Nie Li'anna
Li Shuying
Song Liming
Abstract：Objective To investigate the predictive value of the Age,Blood tests,Comorbidities(ABC)score,Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score(GBS),and prostaglandin E2(PGE2)level for the short-term prognosis of patients with acute up-per gastrointestinal bleeding(AUGIB),providing references for clinical treatment.Methods A total of 180 AUGIB pa-tients admitted to the No.2 Hospital of Baoding from March 2023 to June 2024 were enrolled and assigned to good progno-sis and poor prognosis groups based on their outcomes within 30 days after admission.Data including gender,age,comor-bidities,ABC score,GBS,and serum PGE2 level were collected at admission.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors affecting prognosis.MedCalc 20.0 software was used to plot receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves to analyze the predictive value of each factor for poor prognosis.Results The poor prognosis group had significantly higher ABC and GBS scores but lower serum PGE2 levels than the good prognosis group(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that ABC score,GBS,and serum PGE2 level were influencing factors for poor prognosis in patients with AUGIB(P<0.05).ROC analysis indicated that the areas under the curve(AUC)for predicting prognosis were 0.685 for ABC score,0.622 for GBS,and 0.873 for serum PGE2,all of which were significantly small er than the AUC of the combined model(0.902)(all P<0.05).Conclusion The ABC score,GBS,and serum PGE2 level all have cer-tain predictive value for the short-term prognosis of patients with AUGIB,but the combined predictive model outperforms any single indicator.The combination of ABC score,GBS,and PGE2 level holds promise as a more precise tool for clinical risk stratification.
Keywords：Acute upper gastrointestinal bleedingShort-term prognosisPredictive value
Publication Date：2025-12-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-09(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 79-83,110 )