Predictive value of the aggregate systemic inflammation index combined with CURB-65 for prognosis in emergency severe pneumonia patients
Xing Wenke
Sun Xiangjun
Ma Bingxin
Guo Lili
Jing Zhenguo
Wu Yuzhen
Ju Dandan
Abstract：Objective To evaluate the prognostic value of the aggregate index of systemic inflammation(AISI)combined with the confusion,urea,respiratory rate,blood pressure,age≥65(CURB-65)score in emergency severe pneumonia(SP)pa-tients,aiming to provide a reference for clinical treatment.Methods From October 2022 to February 2025,218 patients with SP admitted to Beijing Shijitan Hospital,Capital Medical University were enrolled.According to survival status within 28 days after initiation of inpatient treatment,patients were assigned to the death group(n=62)and the survival group(n=156).General clinical data,including use of mechanical ventilation,pathogen type,prophylactic antibiotic use,and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II(APACHE II)score,were collected.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was used to evaluate predictive performance;comparisons of AUCs employed DeLong tests.Multivariate stepwise logistic re-gression was used to identify independent factors associated with poor prognosis.Results AISI and CURB-65 scores were sig-nificantly higher in the death group than in the survival group(P<0.05).ROC analysis showed that the combined AISI and CURB-65 AUC for predicting prognosis in emergency SP patients was 0.908,which was significantly higher than AISI alone(AUC=0.841)and CURB-65 alone(AUC=0.769;Z=9.472,11.957;all P<0.001).The death group had significantly higher proportions receiving mechanical ventilation,higher APACHE Ⅱ scores,and higher C-reactive protein(CRP)and ser-um creatinine levels than the survival group(P<0.05).Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis identified use of me-chanical ventilation(OR=2.303,95%CI:1.302-4.073),high APACHE Ⅱ score(OR=2.606,95%CI:1.523-4.460),elevated CRP(OR=2.038,95%CI:1.159-3.584),AISI≥1,406.94(OR=3.271,95%CI:1.792-5.970),and CURB-65 score≥3.11(OR=2.883,95%CI:1.725-4.819)as independent risk factors for poor prognosis in emergency SP pa-tients(P<0.05).Conclusion AISI and CURB-65 are independent predictors of prognosis in emergency SP patients and may serve as useful adjunctive prognostic indicators;the combined AISI and CURB-65 score assessment shows higher predictive val-ue and merits clinical application.
Keywords：Aggregate index of systemic inflammationCURB-65Severe pneumoniaPrognosisPredictive value
Publication Date：2025-10-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-01-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 107-113 )