Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of hand,foot and mouth disease in Nanan,Chongqing from 2014 to 2023
Li Tao
Luo Dan
Wu Xiaohua
Xiang Hui
Wang Yan
Yuan Man
Qin Jing
Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Nanan,Chongqing,and establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model to predict HFMD incidence trends,providing evidence for HFMD prevention strategies.Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to assess HFMD patterns.The SARIMA model was built with R software to forecast incidence rates.Results The annual re-ported HFMD incidence in Nanan during 2014-2023 was 357.18/100 000.Males exhibited a higher incidence(403.67/100 000)than females(324.06/100 000),with statistically significant differences(χ2=409.812,P<0.001).Incidence de-creased significantly with age(χ2trend=591 643.68,P<0.001).The overall incidence showed a downward trend before 2022(AAPC=-13.28%,P<0.05).Seasonal peaks occurred annually,with variations in peak counts before and after the CO-VID-19 pandemic.Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed no significant clustering of HFMD cases.Other enteroviruses were the predominant pathogens(731 cases,57.56%),while EV-A71 positivity declined significantly over time(χ2trend=4.676,P<0.001).The optimal SARIMA model was identified as SARIMA(0,0,2)(1,0,1)12,with actual values lying within the 95%confidence interval,demonstrating reliable predictive accuracy.Conclusion HFMD incidence in Nanan ex-hibited downward trends,distinct seasonal and demographic patterns,and predictable fluctuations.The SARIMA model ef-fectively predicts short-term HFMD trends,offering a valuable tool for targeted prevention strategies.
Keywords：Handfoot and mouth diseaseEpidemiological characteristicsARIMA modelPrediction
Publication Date：2024-12-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 22-28 )