Risk factors and risk prediction model construction for intraoperative hypothermia in patients with extensive burns
Fan Min
Yuan Yacui
Zheng Wanjun
Wang Man
Dong Yumin
Huang Rong
Han Lin
Tian Jing
Su Min
Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors influencing intraoperative hypothermia in patients with extensive burns and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 138 patients with extensive bums who underwent skin grafting surgery at the Second Af-filiated Hospital of Air Force Medical University from January 2020 to March 2024 were selected as the study participants.Based on the presence or absence of intraoperative hypothermia,the patients were assigned to a non-hypothermia group(n=60)and a hypothermia group(n=78).Clinical data were collected,and multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the influence fac-tors for intraoperative hypothermia.A risk prediction model was established,and a nomogram was constructed.The predictive per-formance of the model was evaluated using ROC curves and calibration curves.Results Multivariate logistic stepwise regression analy-sis showed that surgical duration,anesthesia duration,intraoperative fluid infusion volume,and intraoperative irrigation volume were in-dependent influence factors for intraoperative hypothermia in patients with extensive burns(P＜0.05).Based on these influence factors,the risk prediction model for intraoperative hypothermia in patients with extensive burns was established as follows:P=1/[1+e-1.359+0.003 ×(surgical duration)+0.001 ×(nncsthesu duration)+0.025 ×(intraoperative fluid infusion volume)+0.002 ×(intraoperative irrigation volume)].The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a model calibration at x2=2.025(P=0.155).The AUC of the ROC curve for external validation of the prediction model was 0.797(95％CI:0.693-0.852),with a sensitivity of 80.00％and a specificity of 66.67％.Conclusion Surgical duration,anes-thesia duration,intraoperative fluid infusion volume,and intraoperative irrigation volume are independent influence factors for intraoperative hypothermia in patients with extensive burns.The constructed risk prediction model for hypothermia can effectively predict the risk of intraoperative hypothermia.
Keywords：Extensive burnsSkin grafting surgeryHypothermiaRisk factorsRisk prediction model
Publication Date：2024-11-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 86-90,98 )