Analysis of influencing factors and construction of a predictive model for bronchiolitis obliterans after adenovirus pneumonia in children

Zhao Hongxia; Tang Limin; Gao Jie; Ma Jiali; Li Chunhui; Han Xiaohui; Wang Lijing; Tang Yongzai

doi:10.11986/j.issn.1673-873X.2024.11.12

Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors influencing the occurrence of bronchiolitis obliterans(BO)after adenovirus pneumonia in children and establish a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 120 children with adenovirus pneumonia admitted to and followed up at Tangshan Maternal and Child Health Hospital from January 2019 to January 2024 were se-lected as the study participants.The children were followed up for six months,and based on the follow-up results,the 120 children were allocated to a BO group and a non-BO group.The occurrence of BO was analyzed in the 120 children with ade-novirus pneumonia.Multivariate stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for BO after adenovirus pneumonia in children,and a risk prediction model was constructed based on the identified risk factors.The predictive per-formance of the constructed model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Among the 120 children with adenovirus pneumonia,31.67％(38/120)developed BO.Length of hospital stay ≥12.5 days,procal-citonin(PCT)≥0.47 ng/mL,lactate dchydrogenase(LDH)≥717.28 U/L,and duration of mechanical ventilation ≥6.5 days were identified as risk factors for BO after adenovirus pneumonia in children(P＜0.05).The predictive model for BO after adenovirus pneumonia in children had an AUC of 0.909(95％CI:0.860-0.959),with a sensitivity of 97.40％and specificity of 75.60％.Conclusion Length of hospital stay,PCT levels,LDH levels,and duration of mechanical ventilation are risk factors for BO after adenovirus pneumonia in children.The constructed risk prediction model has certain predictive value for the occurrence of BO after adenovirus pneumonia in children and holds promise for application in clinical practice.