The impact of climate change on phenological shifts of winter wheat in the People's Victory Canal Irrigation District
QIAO Yuan
YU Jiankui
YANG Bo
QIN Jingtao
Abstract：[Background and Objective]Crop phenology is sensitive to climate change and its shift can directly affect crop growth,yield formation and food security.Understanding these shifts is particularly important in intensively cultivated irrigation districts.This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variation of winter wheat phenological stages in the People's Victory Canal Irrigation Area and their responses to climate change in northern Henan Province.[Method]Landsat satellite imagery from 2000 to 2024 was used to extract the planting area of winter wheat and its four key phenological stages:green-up,jointing,heading,and maturity,by integrating decision-tree and threshold classification methods.Using these data,we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of the winter wheat phenology and their sensitivity to changes in temperature and precipitation at different growth stages.[Result]The green-up,jointing,heading,and maturity stages of winter wheat in the study area occurred during day-of-year ranges of 59-68,95-104,116-124,and 147-157,respectively,in each year.Over the 24 years,the stages at which crop phenology showed the greatest and least fluctuation followed the order of jointing,green-up,heading,and maturity.Although insignificantly sensitive to minimum temperatures,all phenological stages showed negative correlations with this variable.In addition,all phenological stages were significantly correlated with precipitation.Among these phenological stages,the green-up and jointing stages were positively correlated with mean and maximum temperatures.[Conclusion]From 2000 to 2024,winter wheat phenology in the People's Victory Canal Irrigation District varied spatially,with phenology occurring earlier in the south and west than in the north and east,respectively.The smaller increases in mean and maximum temperatures in the southwest compared with those in the northeast were the primary factors contributing to the observed phenological differences.
Keywords：winter wheatphenological stagesclimate changespatio-temporal characteristicsPeople's Victory Canal Irrigation
Publication Date：2026-02-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 111-119 )