Variation of streamflow and its driving factors in the Shiyang River Basin
SU Qiang
Abstract：[Objective]The Shiyang River Basin is a typical arid and semi-arid inland river basin in Northwestern China;it provides water resources to maintain ecological security and agricultural production.However,global climate change,compounded by intensified human activities,over the past decades has significantly shifted runoff and posed a challenge to water resource stability and ecosystem sustainability in the region.This paper analyses the dynamic changes in the runoff,as well as the underlying driving factors.[Method]The analysis was based on hydrological data measured from 1956 to 2023 at the Caiqi Hydrological Station.The Mann-Kendall mutation test and the sliding t-test were used to identify temporal changes in the runoff.The double mass curve method and statistical analysis were used to identify factors that influence temporal variation in the runoff.[Result]The annual runoff in the basin showed three distinct periods from 1956 to 2023:shift from wet to normally dry,before becoming normally wet again.There was an abrupt change in the runoff in 1971,where the annual runoff decreased by approximately 50%compared to that before 1971.From 1956 to 2023,annual runoff in the basin decreased at an average rate of 0.04 billion m3/year.Our results indicated that the increase in irrigation water consumption was the primary driver of the runoff decrease.Additionally,increase in hydropower stations,cultivated land and deforestation also added a negative impact on the runoff.[Conclusion]Increases in agricultural water use and change in land use are the key factors that result in the runoff decline in the Shiyang River Basin.
Keywords：runoff volumevariation diagnosisMann-Kendall mutation testShiyang River Basin
Publication Date：2025-12-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 112-119 )