Seasonal dynamics of vegetation and its driving factors in the North China Plain

YOU Yujun; XI Xiaokang; ZHANG Lu

doi:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025132

Abstract：[Objective]Understanding the seasonal dynamics of vegetation and the factors driving these changes is essential for sustainable land management and ecological protection.This study investigates the seasonal variations in vegetation cover across North China and identifies the dominant natural and anthropogenic factors influencing these patterns.[Method]Multi-source data,including the normalised difference vegetation index(NDVI),nighttime light intensity,meteorological data,and soil and terrain attributes,were used to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of NDVI from 1982 to 2021.Trend analysis,the Hurst index,and interpretable machine learning methods were employed to detect long-term NDVI trends and quantify the influence of key environmental and human drivers.[Result]The average NDVI in the study area increased significantly in all seasons from 1982 to 2021.Spatially,about 60%of the region exhibited NDVI values above 0.6 in summer,while winter and spring NDVI values remained relatively low.Areas showing significant NDVI increases were concentrated in winter and spring,accounting for 97.70%and 86.94%of the total area,respectively.In contrast,only 1.06%and 2.22%of the region experienced significant NDVI declines in spring and summer.Future projections suggest that NDVI in approximately 82%of the region may decline.NDVI in non-cropland areas generally increased,whereas croplands showed a continuous decline.The dominant drivers of NDVI variation differed by land-use type:NDVI in croplands was mainly influenced by elevation and potential evapotranspiration,while in non-cropland areas,it was primarily affected by precipitation and soil moisture.[Conclusion]The NDVI in North China exhibited clear spatiotemporal heterogeneity driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Sustainable land management strategies should account for these differences,targeting croplands and non-croplands separately to enhance vegetation resilience and ecosystem stability.