Spatiotemporal changes in water supply and demand for winter wheat in Northern Huai River Basin under climate change
YAN Yaqiong
YUE Yuan
PANG Bo
XU Yifei
SONG Liuxian
QIN Mengsheng
WANG Jingjing
Abstract：[Objective]Winter wheat is a staple crop in central and northern China.Understanding the balance between water supply and demand for this crop is crucial for its sustainable production under climate change.This paper investigates the correlations between water supply and demand across different growth stages of winter wheat in the northern part of the Huai River basin.[Method]Using daily meteorological data measured from 61 weather stations across the region from 1970 to 2018 and measured phenological traits of winter wheat,we calculated the spatiotemporal variations and correlation of evapotranspiration(ETc)and effective precipitation(Pe)in each growth stage.The empirical mode decomposition(EMD)was used to elucidate multi-scale trends,while the cross-wavelet transform was applied to identify correlations between ETc and Pe.[Result]EMD showed that during the growing stage,ETc of the wheat decreased first followed by an increase,while Pe increased slightly.During the vegetative growth stage,ETc decreased first,followed by an increase before decreasing again,while Pe increased first followed by a decrease.Both ETc and Pe decreased significantly during the transition from vegetative stage to reproductive stage.In the reproductive stage,ETc decreased asymptotically,while Pe increased first,followed by a decrease before increasing again.Spatially,the difference between water supply and demand(ETc-Pe)in the vegetative growth stage was low in the southeast and high in the northwest of the region,while in other growth stages,it was high in the north and low in the south.The difference between water supply and demand during vegetative growth and reproductive growth period decreased.During the transition from vegetative growth and reproductive stage,the large difference between them was mainly in the southeast,west and south of the region.Cross-wavelet analysis indicated that interannually,ETc and Pe were negatively correlated.[Conclusion]Water supply and demand at different growth stages of winter wheat are imbalanced in the study region,primarily due to interannual variations in ETc and Pe.This imbalance is more pronounced in the southeastern,western and southern parts of the region.
Keywords：Huaibei areawinter wheateffective precipitationevapotranspiration
Publication Date：2025-11-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 18-26 )