Evaluation and Driving Force of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dianchi Basin

FEI Xinxin1; LI Jingdong1; LI Lei2; WEN Qing2; ZHANG Liudong1*

doi:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20190247

Abstract：[Objective] The purpose of this paper is to explore the coordination relationship bet<veen the water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin and the socio-economic development and environment of the basin.[Method]Select the water resources, social economy and environment-related indicators to construct a comprehensive evaluation model for the water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin. The trend of pressure index, bearing capacity index, coordination index and water resources carrying capacity index of the basin from 2011 to 2015 was calculated and analyzed. The factor analysis method was used to further evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the basin, and the main factors extracted were used. The driving force model of water resources carrying capacity was constructed to identify the main driving forces that affect the water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin.[Result]The water resources carrying capacity index of Dianchi Lake Basin showed an upward trend from 2011 to 2015; The main driving forces of water resources carrying capacity in Dianchi Basin were human activity factors and natural factors, including urbanization rate, economic development factors and annual average temperature and annual. Precipitation.CDP per capita and annual precipitation wrer positive drivers, and urbanization rates and annual average temperatures are negative drivers. [Conclusion]Based on the sustainable development of social economy and the coordinated development of water resources system, the construction of water transfer project from the outer basin to Dianchi Lake Basin should be increased to form a multi-water source combined water transfer pattern, and the population quantity should be controlled on the basis of ensuring vigorous economic development. Establish a sound water resource efficient allocation and unified scheduling scheme for multi-source water supply in the basin water resources system.