Frequency Analysis of the Annual Runoff Series of Manas River Based on Conditional Probability Distribution
DING Wenxue
CHEN Fulong
WU Zebin
ZHENG Jintao
Abstract：This paper analyzed the change in the runoff of Manas River basin based on the data measured from 1956 to 2006 using the Mann-Kendall mutation test and the cumulative anomaly method.The model-fitting was tested using the conditional probability distribution method,K-S test,OLS and AIC.The results showed that the annual runoff in Manas River decreased from 1956 to 1995,and then increased from 1996 to 2006;the mutated year was in 1995.The designed optimal annual runoff under different frequencies increased by 1％～ 10％,compared with that calculated using the traditional frequency method.The result calculated from the conditional probability distribution is superior to that from the traditional method in flooding control and flood-resource utilization in the Manas River.
Keywords：conditional probability distributionannual runoff seriesnon-stationaryMann-Kendall testManas River
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 103-108 )