Assessment and Forecast on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources in Chongqing Under Coordinating Urban and Rural Background

doi:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.02.011

Abstract：In order to explore the ecological foot of water in Chongqing under the background of urban and rural, the water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity in the period of 2000—2014 in Chongqing were analyzed according to the basic principle and calculation model of water resources eco-logical footprint.Then,the water resources ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity per capita in 2015—2018 of urban and rural areas were predicted by GRNN model.The results showed that the water resources ecological footprint increased from 9.32 million square hectometer to 14.35 million square hectometer in period of 2000—2014.The water resources carrying capacity was affected by precipitation,so the overall fluc-tuation was larger.Water ecological pressure index was between 0.1156~0.2359,far less than 1,which indicated that the space of water resources development and utilization was large.The water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity between urban and rural were different,that was to say that the total water ecological footprint in rural areas was more than that in city,but the water footprint per capita was less than that in city.The total water resources carrying capacity and water resources carrying per capita in rural area were more than that in city.The water ecological pressure indexes of urban and rural were both less than 1,but the water ecological pressure index of urban was higher than that in rural area,which indicated that the present de-velopment and utilization degree of water resources in urban was high,but the pressure of development on water resources in urban was also great.It was predicted that the water ecological footprints per capita of urban and ru-ral areas in Chongqing from 2015 to 2018 were on the rise.The water ecological footprint per capita in urban in-creased from 0.38574 square hectometer to 0.40962 square hectometer,increasing by 7%.The water ecological footprint per capita in rural increased from 0.2765 square hectometer to 0.33657 square hectometer,increasing by 22%.The water resources carrying capacity per capita in urban and rural areas were relatively stable in a cer-tain range,so the growth of water ecological footprint would threaten the sustainable utilization of water resourc-es.Based on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in Chongqing,the industrial structures,trans-form the development pattern and balance urban and rural layout should be optimized to promote the sustainable development of social economy in Chongqing.