Risk Model of Water Resources Shortage under the Condition of Natural Water Supply and Its Application in Irrigation District
LIN Xiaomin
ZHANG Jinping
JIN Yuying
LI Yanyan
Abstract：Based on the annual measured rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)data series from 1970 to 2013 at the Luhun irrigation district,the risk model of water resources shortage under the condition of natural water supply at the Luhun irrigation district was established through Frank Copula function method,the joint distribution and encountered probability of combination events of supply and demand of water resources un-der the condition of natural water supply were calculated and analyzed.The results showed that the relationship between rainfall and ET0 could be well described by the application of Frank Copula function and the joint distri-bution model based on Frank Copula function was feasible for the joint probability of rainfall and ET0 in irriga-tion district.The two joint probability categories of different combination events between rainfall and ET0 could be qualified by the application of the model.
Keywords：Copula functionrainfallreference crop evapotranspirationrisk model of water resources shortage
Publication Date：2017-01-31
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 64-68 )