Combination Forecast and Analysis of Actual Observed-based Annual Effective Utilization Coefficient of Irrigation Water
Abstract：Based on the head-end measurement method estimates and analysis the efficient utilization coefficient of irrigation water in Guangdong Province,during ＂Eleventh Five-Year＂ period,used qualitative analysis of gray correlation filter out the main factors,and principal component analysis was validated;by use of grey system,regression analysis and time series exponential smoothing method to build the five kinds of forecasting models.On this basis,according to the best weighted combination of prediction methods to establish the combination forecasting model,quantitative description of the efficient utilization coefficient of irrigation water and the factors affecting the relationship between the response,example calculation proves that the prediction model with high prediction accuracy.Finally,the efficient utilization coefficient of irrigation water 2000—2015 for the long-term trends was analyzed.Explore the use of annual statistics for the province＇s annual utilization coefficient of irrigation water and effective method of calculation for the lack of work under the premise of the measured use of statistical data for the annual effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water assessment provides a simple and predictable way possible.
Keywords：effective utilization coefficient of irrigation watergrey systemmulti-regression analysiscombination forecast
Publication Date：2012-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 87-92 )