Flood and Stormtide Encounter Analysis in Tideway-Comparison of Multivariate Hydrological Probability Models
Abstract：Taken the case of problem of flood and stormtide encounter in estuary area of the Pearl River delta,several bivariate hydrological probability models are compared and analysed,which include mixed Gumbel model,Gumbel-Logistic model,and the Copula method,such as Gumbel-Hougard Copula,Clayton Copula,and Genest-Ghoudi Copula,etc,which belong to Archimedean Copulas.The results showed that the different bivariate probability models have different degrees limitation to the correlation between variables,and the fitful models should be chosen correctly by variables correlativity.Compared with mixed Gumbel model and Gumbel-Logistic model,the Copula models have no limitation to marginal distribution,and the marginal distribution can be any types of probability distribution function.Several goodness-of-fit test methods are applied to select the best models based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test,RMSE,BIAS,and AIC criterion.For each model,goodness-of-fit are different obviously,and the best model should be determined according to the characteristics of observed hydrological datum.
Keywords：flood and stormtide encountermultivariate hydrological probability modelsgoodness-of-fit test
Publication Date：2012-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)