Population forecast nationwide based on linear regression model,Malthus Population Growth Model and logistic model
ZHAO Tian-wei
CHEN Hui-da
Abstract：Objective To have a better understanding of the change laws of Chinese population and predict the future population of China.Methods The population growth rate was calculated and the law of population growth was analyzed according to the population data from 1949 to 2019 published on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics.The linear regression model,Malthusian population model and logistic model were established by using the population data from 1949 to 2014,which were evaluated with relative errors to predict the population in 2020-2040,and analyze the change trend of future population development.Results The population growth of China showed a downward trend,with negative population growth in 1960 and 1961,and positive growth in the rest years.It was found through model fitting and the comparison that the linear regression model had large errors,the Malthus population model had the largest prediction error,and the logistic model was much better than the linear regression model and Malthus model.Conclusion Logistic model is more suitable for long-term population prediction,with smaller error,better simulation accuracy and more reliable prediction results.
Keywords：population growthMalthus modellogistic modellinear regression modelpopulation prediction
Publication Date：2023-12-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 623-627 )