Trends and projections of disease burden attributable to high BMI for knee osteoarthritis in China,1990-2021

LI Si-yi; ZHOU Guang-qing

doi:10.13820/j.cnki.gdyx.20243744

Abstract：Objective To analyze and project the trends of disease burden attributable to high body mass index(BMI)for knee osteoarthritis(KOA)in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021,in order to provide evidence for pre-vention and management strategies.Methods Data on the burden of KOA in China were extracted from the Global Bur-den of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021).Population attributable fraction(PAF)was used to assess the burden due to high BMI.The average annual percentage change(AAPC)was calculated to evaluate the temporal trend of the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rate.An age-period-cohort(APC)model was established using Stata software to explore the independent effects of age,period,and cohort.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was constructed with R 4.2.2 to forecast the DALY rate for the period 2022-2031.Results From 1990 to 2021,the DALYs attributable to high BMI for KOA in China increased by 369.28％,with the DALY rate rising from 20.13 to 78.13 per 100 000 population.The age-standardized DALY rate increased by 91.68％.The burden was higher among females than males,with a male-to-female ratio ranging from 0.49 to 0.51.The disease burden increased with age.The APC model revealed a growing trend in age and period effects,while cohort effects showed a downward trend.ARIMA model projections indicated that the burden would continue to increase through 2031,with the age-stand-ardized DALY rate expected to reach 55.35 per 100 000.Conclusion The burden of KOA attributable to high BMI in China is substantial and continues to rise,with marked age and gender disparities.Targeted prevention and management strategies,particularly among middle-aged and elderly females,are urgently needed.