Study on correlation between influenza and meteorological factors in Ganzhou City

GUO Shi-jun; HUANG Cheng; ZHANG Yan-qing; XIE Yan-hai; HE Fa-zhi

doi:10.13820/j.cnki.gdyx.20241917

Abstract：Objective To investigates the correlation between influenza incidence and meteorological factors in Ganzhou City,so as to provide a scientific basis for influenza prevention and control.Methods Influenza-like illness(ILI)cases from January 2017 to December 2023 were collected from Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital Ganzhou Branch,along with corresponding meteorological data.An ecological research method was used to describe influenza epi-demic characteristics and analyze the correlation and impact level between influenza incidence and meteorological factors.Results From 2017 to 2023,a total of 11,570 ILI cases were tested for influenza,with 1 378 cases testing positive,re-sulting in a positivity rate of 11.9％.There was a statistically significant difference in influenza positivity rates across dif-ferent years and months(x2=48.932,P＜0.01;x2=271.170,P＜0.01),with the highest positivity rate occurring in winter(17.7％),followed by summer(12.9％)(x2=213.373,P＜0.01).Male patients had a significantly higher positivity rate than females(12.7％vs.10.9％,x2=8.334,P＜0.01).The positivity rate also varied significantly across age groups,with the highest rate in children aged 0-14 years(13.2％)and the lowest in individuals over 50 years(9.3％)(x2=31.262,P＜0.01).Partial correlation analysis between meteorological factors and influenza cases revealed a moderate positive correlation between monthly average temperature and influenza incidence(|r|≥0.5).Monthly average humidity,sunshine hours,CO,NO2,O3,and PM10 showed low correlations(0.3≤|r|＜0.5),while total monthly rainfall,average wind speed,and SO2 were weakly correlated(|r|＜0.3).Multiple linear regression analy-sis showed that monthly average temperature and PM10 were positively correlated with influenza incidence,while monthly average humidity,sunshine hours,CO,and O3 were negatively correlated.Among these,monthly average temperature had the highest standardized regression coefficient(0.936),indicating it as the most influential factor,followed by 03(-O.891),sunshine hours(-0.578),CO(-0.419),monthly average humidity(-0.414),and PM10(0.15).Conclusion Influenza in Ganzhou exhibits distinct seasonal and demographic patterns,with peak incidence in winter and summer,and a higher susceptibility in children aged 0-14 years.Among meteorological factors,monthly average temper-ature is the primary factor influencing influenza incidence,with monthly average humidity,sunshine hours,CO,PM10,and O3 also contributing to influenza dynamics to varying extents.