Correlation between dynamic changes in immune factors and disease severity in acute pancreatitis
DILIXIATI Alimu
ZHANG Tao
XU Hui
LIU Yue-quan
Abstract：Objective To analyze the correlation between dynamic changes in serum immune factors and disease severity and prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis.Methods This study included patients with acute pancreatitis who were treated at the Pancreatic Surgery Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region People's Hospital from Janu-ary 2020 to December 2022.Patients were divided into a good prognosis group and a poor prognosis group based on wheth-er they developed pancreatic and/or peripancreatic infectious necrosis,organ failure,or death after treatment.We com-pared the general data such as age and sex between the two groups and analyzed the severity of the disease,immune factor levels,and their dynamic changes.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze these factors,and the correlation between dynamic changes in immune factors and disease severity was examined.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves were drawn to evaluate the predictive value of these factors for prognosis.Results The age of patients in the poor prognosis group was significantly higher than that in the good prognosis group(t=3.662,P=0.000).There were no sig-nificant differences in gender,BMI,or disease-related indicators before treatment between the two groups(all P＞0.05).Three days after treatment,all indicators significantly increased,with the poor prognosis group showing signifi-cantly higher levels and variability than the good prognosis group(all P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that high variability in IL-8,MCP-1,PCT,and BISAP were independent risk factors for poor prognosis(OR=1.003,1.009,1.022,1.002;all P＜0.05).Pearson correlation analysis showed that the variability in IL-8,MCP-1,and PCT was positively correlated with changes in disease severity(ρ=0.615,0.591,0.627;all P＜0.05).The ROC curve analysis showed that the combined AUC of IL-8,MCP-1,PCT,and BISAP variability for predicting patient prognosis was 0.916,significantly higher than the individual diagnoses of these factors(all P＜0.05),with a specificity of 100.0％and sensitivity of 82.6％.Conclusion Changes in immune factor levels early in the treatment of acute pancrea-titis are significantly correlated with disease severity and can predict patient prognosis,demonstrating considerable predic-tive value.
Keywords：acute pancreatitisimmune factorsprognosisROC curve
Publication Date：2024-10-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 1300-1305 )