Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Variation Characteristics in Qingyuan City over the Past 62 Years

LI Tingting; WU Zhichun; HUANG Yongji; QIN Weichang

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-6190.2025.05.006

Abstract：To understand the climatic characteristics of extreme precipitation in Qingyuan City,daily precipitation data from seven national meteorological stations in Qingyuan from 1962 to 2023 were analyzed.Methods such as the percentile threshold method,linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall test,and Morlet wavelet analysis were employed to examine the trends,abrupt changes,and periodic variations in extreme precipitation amount,days,intensity,and contribution rate.The results indicate the following.(1)The thresholds for extreme precipitation,as well as the maximum values of extreme precipitation amount,days,and intensity,all occurred in Fogang,showing a spatial distribution that decreases from the southeast to the northwest.(2)The annual average extreme precipitation amount,days,and intensity in Qingyuan City gen-erally exhibited an upward trend,with monthly distributions being largely consistent.A significant decrea-sing trend was observed in extreme precipitation amount and days from 1981 to 1990,while a significant in-creasing trend,most pronounced in 2021-2023,was noted in extreme precipitation amount and intensity.(3)The average contribution rate of extreme precipitation was 29.9%,with a climate tendency rate of 0.0077(10a)-1,indicating an increasing trend in the contribution rate of extreme precipitation.No abrupt changes were detected in extreme precipitation amount,days,or intensity.(4)Both extreme precipitation amount and days exhibited interannual periodic variations of 5-8 years,with similar timing.Additionally,quasi-15-year oscillations were observed in extreme precipitation amount,days,and intensity,persisting throughout the entire time series.