Spatiotemporal Characteristics of"Dragon Boat Water"in Fogang County from 1961 to 2023

WU Zhichun; CHEN Zhuojian; LUO Yuhao; ZHANG Jinyu; FENG Ziya

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-6190.2025.02.012

Abstract：To improve the accuracy of forecasting and early warning of"Dragon Boat Water"in Fogang and to provide references for disaster prevention and mitigation,this study analyzed the daily precipitation data during the"Dragon Boat Water"period from a national basic observation station in Fogang County from 1961 to 2023 and from 10 regional automatic weather stations from 2014 to 2023.Methods such as linear re-gression,polynomial fitting,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis,and Kriging interpo-lation were employed to examine the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of"Dragon Boat Water"in Fogang County.The results are shown as follows.Over the past 63 years,the precipitation amount,precipi-tation days,and precipitation intensity of"Dragon Boat Water"in Fogang County have generally shown an upward trend,though not significantly.Since the mid-to-late 2010s,these metrics have been in a relatively high(strong)phase,with 13 years experiencing severe"Dragon Boat Water"events.No abrupt changes were detected in the precipitation amount,precipitation days,or precipitation intensity of"Dragon Boat Wa-ter"in Fogang County.The main cycle for precipitation amount and precipitation days is approximately 20 years,while the main cycle for precipitation intensity is approximately 28 years.The average precipitation of"Dragon Boat Water"in Fogang County exhibits a spatial distribution characteristic of being higher in the north and west and lower in the south and east.The central region has a stable and relatively high precipita-tion amount,while the annual variation in precipitation amount is significant in the northern and southern re-gions,making forecasting more challenging.