On the Objective Forecasting Method for Thunderstorms and Gales Based on the Algorithm of Classification and Regression Tree
CHEN Rongquan
ZHOU Jing
LI Houwei
Abstract：For performing better forecasting of thunderstorms and gales,this paper determined the cli-matological characteristics and spatial distributions of the thunderstorms and gales taking place in Zhaoqing from 2005 to 2023 and summarized five main synoptic patterns associated with them.The results are shown as follows.Taking as characteristic factors the following environmental physical quantities of K,Li,CAPE,T85,tg,SHR3,SHR6 and DCAPE,this paper used the algorithm of classification and regression tree to set up a model for forecasting the weather of thunderstorms and gales.It is known from the model that the CAPE,with the threshold of 2086.05 J/kg,SHR3,with the threshold of 8.65 m/s,and a lifting index,with the threshold of-0.94 ℃,are doing a good job in distinguishing thunderstorms and gales,with the model accuracy as high as 83.5％.A retrospective forecast was carried out for such weather that happened locally on June 4,2019 and the result was satisfactory.
Keywords：synopticsclassification and regression treeforecasting methodenvironmental physical quantitythunderstorm and gale
Publication Date：2025-02-19
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)